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Wednesday, 12 March 2008 06:21 |
We're entering the business end of the season at the moment, the time when managers that have rotated their squads and rested players throughout the year usually accelerate away from the rest and come into their own. The race for 4th place in the Premiership, according to the media, is well and truly on.
They know Liverpool will get there in the end, but they still talk up the chances of Villa, Everton and until recently Pompey and City too. I suppose they have to fashion a bit of a story where there isnt one
hype up one group of supporters and get them all excited only to drop them from a height when they fail to achieve the promised land.
Lets have a look at the runners and riders then for the 4th place spot:
4 Everton 27 20 50
5 Liverpool 26 24 47
6 Aston Villa 27 15 47
7 Portsmouth 27 11 44
8 Man City 27 3 44
I have included right the way down to 8th place though I dont think either Pompey or Citeh can close the gap. The consistancy, form and goal difference isnt there to the extent they need in my opinion.
So if we assume that the only serious contenders are Everton, Villa and the 5 times European Champions; Liverpool - lets have a looky looky at their next fixtures and also the guesstimate of how many points they will get from each.
Everton
Pompey (h) - 3
Sunderland (a) - 1
Fulham (a) - 1
West Ham (h) - 3
Liverpool (a) - 0
Villa
Arsenal (a) - 0
Boro (h) - 3
Pompey (a) - 1
Sunderland (h) - 3
United (a) - 0
Liverpool
Bolton (a) - 3
Wesh Ham (h) - 3
Toon (h) - 3
Reading (h) - 3
United (a) - 0
Everton (h) - 3
Liverpool have 4 home games out of the next 6 and have some teams that of late have capitulated of late - Reading, Newcastle and Bolton spring to mind. There's a crucial tie with Everton at home that Sky will no doubt build up as the match that decides the 4th place spot - but I think it will be pretty much all over by then in anycase.
By the end of March, this is how I have predicted the table will look, with everyone having played an equal number of games:
4 - Liverpool - 62 points
5 - Everton - 58 points
6 - Villa - 54 points
Home and hosed.
http://www.thedailypunt.com/forum/talk-sports/108929-race-4th-place.html |
