By legendary Eurovision punter, 'Beanie' for the 2007 event but still relevant:
Here's the study that was done a few years ago that produced picture the above diagram:
http://jasss.soc.surrey.ac.uk/9/2/1.html
Since then its fair to say the 'Balkan Bloc' has strengthened...or has it?
Sure it now contains far more countries than before, but surely this detracts from each individuals chances. They can't give support to everyone and with so many neighbours the votes might well be split between a lot of the contenders.
Contrast that with Sweden, who have no other Skando contender in the top ten in the betting. They will enjoy the lion's share of support from the Viking Empire as well as Western Europe, while a large number of countries will split the(sizeable) Eastern Euro/Balkan vote.
And then Switzerland, again a similar situation to Sweden - if they do get support in central europe (from Austria, Belgium, Netherlands, Germany etc) they don't have many rivals for it, and again can count on support in the west.
Conclusions...I think the size of the Balkan Bloc is its own worst enemy here. With so many contenders the big winners in terms of politics look to be Sweden, with weak Norwegian, Finnish, Danish etc entries, and to a lesser extent the Swiss.
Doesn't tell us much given that both lead the betting but hey ho.
Here's that all important voting diagram:
Having said that its a bit dated now with Montenegro's independence and a few new nations on the Eurovision scene...will try and find an updated one.
This article is handy:
http://www.liacs.nl/~tcocx/songfesti...exenglish.html
The graphs at the bottom show that Europe is split into 2 fairly distinct groups...on one side is Western Europe and the Skandos, and on the other are the Balkans and Eastern Europe.
Interesting to note from that that Estonia are one of the few countries to bridge that divide, attracting support from Skandos and Balkans.
On the Western Euro/Skando side, its important to note that Western Europeans support the Skando nations, but that doesn't work in reverse.
In contrast, the Balkan/Eastern Euro block will support each other and vice versa.
Unfortunately, the Estonian song is so shite its barely worth discussing that, but what of the politics of the main contenders. I'll have a little look at that tomorrow...could be worrying reading for Swiss fans on first look...
Having said that its a bit dated now with Montenegro's independence and a few new nations on the Eurovision scene...will try and find an updated one.
This article is handy:
http://www.liacs.nl/~tcocx/songfesti...exenglish.html
The graphs at the bottom show that Europe is split into 2 fairly distinct groups...on one side is Western Europe and the Skandos, and on the other are the Balkans and Eastern Europe.
Interesting to note from that that Estonia are one of the few countries to bridge that divide, attracting support from Skandos and Balkans.
On the Western Euro/Skando side, its important to note that Western Europeans support the Skando nations, but that doesn't work in reverse.
In contrast, the Balkan/Eastern Euro block will support each other and vice versa.
Unfortunately, the Estonian song is so shite its barely worth discussing that, but what of the politics of the main contenders. I'll have a little look at that tomorrow...could be worrying reading for Swiss fans on first look...
Here's the study that was done a few years ago that produced picture the above diagram:
http://jasss.soc.surrey.ac.uk/9/2/1.html
Since then its fair to say the 'Balkan Bloc' has strengthened...or has it?
Sure it now contains far more countries than before, but surely this detracts from each individuals chances. They can't give support to everyone and with so many neighbours the votes might well be split between a lot of the contenders.
Contrast that with Sweden, who have no other Skando contender in the top ten in the betting. They will enjoy the lion's share of support from the Viking Empire as well as Western Europe, while a large number of countries will split the(sizeable) Eastern Euro/Balkan vote.
And then Switzerland, again a similar situation to Sweden - if they do get support in central europe (from Austria, Belgium, Netherlands, Germany etc) they don't have many rivals for it, and again can count on support in the west.
Conclusions...I think the size of the Balkan Bloc is its own worst enemy here. With so many contenders the big winners in terms of politics look to be Sweden, with weak Norwegian, Finnish, Danish etc entries, and to a lesser extent the Swiss.
Doesn't tell us much given that both lead the betting but hey ho.
